• Newsletter

    Rawhide

    What really awaits at the end of the ride is, in our view, much less clear than the majority of market participants currently think. Reading the outlooks for 2013, there appears to be widespread consensus regarding the development of the markets in the medium term. The acute danger of the euro zone breaking apart has been averted, at least since the unorthodox intervention of the ECB. Although the fundamental picture in Europe seems anything but rosy, most analysts assume that technical analysis will prevail and that risky asset classes will continue to be seen as "the place to be" given the excessive levels of liquidity in a long-term low interest rate environment. Even the risk of financial repression as an elegant way out of the debt crisis would benefit precisely the credit markets and alternative asset classes. Although we certainly believe that the euro zone will survive longer than might appear possible at the moment, we come to different conclusions, as we will explain in the following. We cannot avoid starting with a short detour to Greece.

    PDF