• Newsletter

    Das Lied vom Rausch ("The Intoxication Song")

    It doesn't matter what you're intoxicated by and what your excuse for being so intoxicated is - at some point, the sensation wears off. And this could happen sooner than the exorbitant start to the year would suggest. The political situation in Italy, in particular, but also the tense situation on the Spanish property market (and its knock-on effect on the banking sector), the downgrade of the UK credit rating, the ongoing debate on how to solve the Cypriot banking problem and the seemingly endless discussions surrounding the US budget (to name but a few of the problems currently hanging over us) are clear testimony to the fact that the turbulence witnessed over the past few years will remain with us for longer than perhaps many market participants might have expected only a few weeks ago. As a result, this newsletter aims to embark upon a more realistic assessment of the current situation of the markets and the threat of a potential crisis, and attempts to show what indicators might prove to be helpful helpful at anticipating potentially stressful situations in the future.