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Created by Dr. Jochen Felsenheimer


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[in German only] The Longest Time

Nach vielen Jahren des kollektiven Wohlfühlens an den Märkten hat uns der Jahresanfang deutlich aufgezeigt, dass die Preisrisiken aus den Rohstoffmärkten und aus China angesichts deren immensen Bedeutung für die Weltwirtschaft bereits systemischen Charakter in den Finanzmärkten angenommen haben. Vor allem über den Devisenmarkt werden die notwendigen Preisanpassungen als Reaktion auf die in den letzten Jahren aufgebauten globalen Ungleichgewichte ablaufen – mit dementsprechend globalen Effekten. Trotz der bereits sehr ordentlichen Bewegung zum Jahresanfang denken wir, dass die Tiefs an den Aktien- und Kreditmärkten begleitet von sehr hoher Volatilität noch vor uns liegen. Die Zentralbanken haben versucht, das Wohlgefühl möglichst lange  aufrecht zu erhalten – nur um jetzt feststellen zu müssen, dass sich fundamentale Wahrheiten nicht mit Geld kaufen lassen: „I don't care what consequence it brings … I intend to hold you for the longest time.”

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