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Created by Dr. Jochen Felsenheimer


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[in German only] American Dream

Die aktuelle Interpretation des amerikanischen Traums geht auf die Fed zurück. Neben dem immer wiederkehrenden Haushaltsstreit gilt unsere größte Sorge der verpassten Chance der Fed, in ihrer September-Sitzung den Liquiditätszuwachs zu bremsen. Wir sprechen hier nicht von einer Reduktion der Liquidität, sondern nur von einem geringeren (immer noch sehr positiven) Liquiditätswachstum. Wenn man die Nachrichten der letzten Wochen und Monate betrachtet, erscheint es überraschend, dass wir hier von einem Land sprechen, dessen 5Y-CDS bei 35 bp handelt. Deshalb sehen wir die Marktrisiken für den Rest des Jahres als durchaus signifikant an. In Kombination mit den steigenden politischen, regulatorischen und legalen Risiken (denen wir einen Großteil dieses Newsletters widmen) und der sehr fragilen Markttechnik sind wir der Meinung, dass wir die Spread-Tights des Jahres 2013 bereits hinter uns gelassen haben.

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